In a recent interview, Tom Mackay, head of refined metals at IXM, a commodities trading firm, shared his insights on the evolving landscape of electric vehicle (EV) sales and the implications for metal demand. While acknowledging a slowdown in EV sales that has raised some concerns about the industry’s future, Mackay emphasized that the demand for key metals, like copper, remains strong due to their critical role in electric vehicles.

“The EV industry is still emerging,” Mackay stated. “With various factors affecting it, such as penetration rates and battery chemistry, predicting demand can feel like piecing together a puzzle.” He further commented, “While the growth in electric vehicle sales may be slowing down, it’s important to note that it is still on the rise. Conditions vary across regions, but overall, the growth remains robust, and the appetite for metals is healthy.”

Mackay highlighted the importance of copper, which is vital for the wiring in electric vehicles and also plays a role in batteries. These batteries typically contain lithium and may also include nickel and cobalt, depending on their specific chemical formulations.

As someone managing copper cathodes, zinc, and lead, Mackay drew attention to the significant advancements in Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) battery technology. “Some LFP batteries offer the capability of traveling up to 1,000 kilometers or charging to 80% in just 10 minutes,” he remarked.

Primarily developed for the Chinese market, LFP batteries present a cost-effective alternative to nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) batteries, particularly since earlier lithium iron batteries faced challenges with long-distance travel.

Mackay also noted a prevailing sentiment that the demand for batteries in Western markets will likely center around ternary batteries, primarily due to their higher recycling value. He concluded by stating, “For automakers, recyclability is a crucial aspect when choosing which battery chemistry to implement.”