On October 8, former Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso made waves by referring to Taiwan as “a neighboring country of Japan” during a speech at the Double Tenth National Day reception hosted by the Taipei Economic and Cultural Center in Tokyo. Senior Japanese media personality Akio Yaita took to Facebook to share that Aso also highlighted the historical coincidence of Taiwan’s founding year with Japan’s Taisho era, marking 113 years since then. This assertion appears to resonate with President Lai Ching-te’s recent comments on Taiwan’s national identity and is expected to elicit a strong reaction from China, reinforcing Japan’s support for Taiwan.

During his address, Aso underscored the significance of the friendly relations between Japan and Taiwan, despite the lack of formal diplomatic ties. He articulated that this friendship has “significant meaning” for both nations. Yaita pointed out that Aso is keenly aware that his comments diverge from Japan’s long-standing practice of steering clear of recognizing Taiwan as a sovereign state, which could trigger a significant backlash from China.

Given Aso’s background as a former prime minister and his dual roles as foreign minister under Junichiro Koizumi and Shinzo Abe, he comes across as a seasoned figure in Japan’s foreign policy landscape, well aware of the potential diplomatic consequences of his statements.

What prompted Aso to speak out now? Yaita identified two primary reasons. First, there’s a growing dissatisfaction with China, fueled by recent events such as Chinese military aircraft approaching Japanese airspace, unauthorized ballistic missile tests, and the tragic murder of a Japanese student in China—an incident poorly managed by Chinese authorities, who failed to provide adequate information.

Second, Aso’s remarks may be a strategic move to apply pressure on Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, whose recent cabinet appointments included pro-China figures like Takumi Iwaya and Yoshifumi Matsumoto in critical foreign affairs roles. Meanwhile, Aso’s own faction and allies, particularly from Abe’s circle, were notably sidelined, despite their sizable presence in the Diet. Additionally, Aso’s role as deputy president of the Liberal Democratic Party has been reduced to an advisory capacity.

Yaita explained that while Aso’s faction and Abe’s supporters largely backed Sanae Takaichi in the recent LDP presidential election, making some political isolation understandable, Ishiba’s actions seemed excessive. Aso’s frustration was palpable following the cabinet announcement, as he reportedly declined a handshake or photo opportunity with Ishiba and left the venue early. His comments hint at a disregard for any potential diplomatic fallout, suggesting he feels disconnected from Ishiba’s administration.

Ultimately, Yaita stressed that Aso’s primary goal remains to convey staunch support for Taiwan, particularly in light of Ishiba’s cabinet, which appears to lack advocates for a strong stance against China while endorsing Taiwan. Aso’s appearance at the national day celebration reaffirms his commitment to Japan’s backing of Taiwan.

Following this, on October 9, Ishiba dissolved the House of Representatives, and Yaita noted that 84-year-old Aso is poised to re-enter the political arena in Fukuoka Prefecture for the upcoming election. If all goes according to plan, Aso could find himself back in the Diet in just three weeks, positioning himself to potentially lead dissenting factions within the party against the current administration.