Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba was seen campaigning for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) candidate in Iwaki, Fukushima Prefecture, on October 15. With the Japanese House of Representatives elections scheduled for October 27, a recent nationwide poll by Asahi Shimbun has left the future of the ruling coalition with Komeito uncertain as to whether they can maintain a majority. Forecasts suggest that the LDP may lose around 50 seats from their pre-election total of 247.

The upcoming elections will fill 465 seats in total, consisting of 289 district seats and 176 proportional representation seats, with a majority requiring 233 seats. Former Prime Ministers Shinzo Abe and Fumio Kishida, along with the current Prime Minister Ishiba, have all considered the ruling coalition’s ability to secure a majority as the critical line for this election.

According to Asahi Shimbun’s telephone and online surveys conducted on October 19 and 20, uncertainty remains regarding the coalition’s ability to preserve a majority. However, the main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, is expected to significantly increase their current 98 seats, while both the Democratic Party for the People and the Reiwa Shinsengumi are also showing promising prospects.

The polling covered both district and proportional representation areas, with approximately 40% of voters still undecided about their voting intentions, indicating that the situation may continue to evolve.

In terms of district seats, the LDP is projected to experience a significant drop, estimated to lose around 40 seats from the 182 they had before the announcement. In the proportional representation area, they are also expected to see a decrease of about 10 seats from the previous 65.

Since regaining power in the 2012 House of Representatives elections, the LDP has maintained a standalone majority, but this election may change that dynamic.

October 20 marked the only Sunday during the election campaign, prompting candidates from various parties to engage in active street campaigning across the country.

Fumifumi Fujita, the Secretary-General of the Japan Innovation Party, held a speech in front of Nagoya Station, stating, “Due to the political funding scandals and issues with the Unification Church, the public has lost faith in politics. Merely criticizing the LDP isn’t enough to change the political landscape; we aim to express our stance by cutting legislators’ salaries.”

Many small electoral districts in Aichi Prefecture, where Nagoya is located, are expected to witness fierce competition. Since the election announcement, party leaders have been actively visiting the area to rally support.

LDP members, including Kishida, Election Strategy Committee Chairman Shinjiro Koizumi, and Sanae Takaichi, all arrived in Nagoya on October 18.

Kishida stated, “We will continue to work on restoring public trust in politics and will address the criticism we receive.” Koizumi urged, “The issue of political funding is a responsibility of the LDP leadership; let’s not allow our opponents to label our candidates.”

Constitutional Democratic Party leader Kiyohiko Noda was also present at Kanayama Station in Nagoya, where he called on supporters, stating, “Changing the governorship means changing the way political funds are used. A change in government represents the most significant political reform.”

Noda criticized Ishiba’s dissolution of the House of Representatives, describing it as an attempt to “cover up financial scandals and the connection with the old Unification Church,” claiming it mocked the voters and urging them to say “no” to the LDP in this upcoming election.