On October 14, China’s General Administration of Customs released data indicating a slowdown in both exports and imports for September. Exports saw an annual increase of just 2.4% in dollar terms, while imports grew by only 0.3%. This marks the lowest export growth rate in five months, and the trade surplus has also dipped to a five-month low. Analysts suggest that the decline is due to uncertainties surrounding global demand, increasing trade protectionism, and geopolitical conflicts, highlighting a significant risk of downward trends in the future.

Lu Daliang, spokesperson for the General Administration of Customs and director of the statistical analysis department, acknowledged the slowdown in export growth for September, attributing it to short-term factors, including climate issues.

He identified three main reasons for this slowdown: First, two typhoons made landfall consecutively in the Yangtze River Delta, causing delays in shipping schedules and a backlog in exports. Second, global shipping disruptions, container shortages, and ongoing contract negotiations with dockworkers on the U.S. East Coast have significantly impacted companies’ shipping and logistics operations. Third, the high export volume recorded in September of the previous year presents a challenging base for year-over-year growth comparisons.

Regarding imports, Lu noted a consistent increase since July, with September reaching the highest levels of the year and growing 2% from August. Notably, imports of coal, natural gas, and semiconductors surged by 13%, 19%, and 17%, respectively, indicating a robust recovery in domestic demand.

Analyzing the first three quarters of the year, total imports and exports amounted to 4.54 trillion yuan, up 3.4% year-over-year. Exports totaled 2.61 trillion yuan, increasing by 4.3%, while imports rose to 1.92 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 2.2%.

Examining trade partnerships, imports and exports with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative grew by 6.3% in renminbi terms, now accounting for 47.1% of total trade. Trade with other members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) increased by 4.5%, with ASEAN trade reaching 5.09 trillion yuan, a 9.4% rise. In contrast, trade with the EU and the U.S. grew at a slower pace, increasing by only 0.9% and 4.2%, respectively, indicating a shift towards stronger trade with Southeast Asia and Belt and Road countries while growth in Europe and the U.S. is slowing.

Looking ahead, Wang Lingjun, deputy director of the General Administration of Customs, pointed out that the current internal and external environment is increasingly complex, presenting several challenges for foreign trade. These challenges primarily stem from heightened global trade protectionism, weak growth momentum in major markets, heavy debt burdens, and increasing uncertainties and instabilities.