In Osaka, a local supermarket has put up a notice indicating that rice is currently out of stock. As Japanese farmers gear up for their autumn harvest, bags of rice are expected to soon refill the supermarket shelves. However, experts warn that this increase in supply may not significantly impact the rising prices of rice.

With a surge in tourism driving up consumption, Japan’s inventory of commercial white rice hit a record low in June. Concerns triggered by typhoons and earthquakes led to panic buying, exacerbating the ongoing situation now referred to as the “Reiwa rice crisis.” In response, some retailers have even implemented purchase limits to manage scarcity.

While a boost in rice harvest anticipated in September could relieve some supply pressure, rice farmers and major grain traders have agreed on raising contract prices. This cost increase will likely be passed on to consumers; just last month, shoppers in central Tokyo paid 2,871 yen (approximately $20.20) for a 5-kilogram bag of rice, marking a 23% hike compared to the previous year.

Ryuji Imai, the owner of Isego, a 300-year-old rice shop in northern Tokyo, stated, “We have barely any stock left.” He noted this is the first time since taking over the family business in 2006 that he has experienced such a drastic shortage. Imai predicts that once supply is restored in October, prices may soar by as much as 50%.

Japan’s rice production has been on the decline since the late 1960s, driven in part by an aging agricultural workforce and government policies favoring the cultivation of other crops, such as wheat. Additionally, climate change raises concerns regarding yields and future food security.

Though the international rice market could provide some relief, Japanese consumers generally prefer domestically grown rice and are often hesitant to purchase imported varieties. Moreover, following India’s export restrictions on rice last year, prices for foreign rice have also seen an uptick.