Scientists are issuing urgent warnings about the potential for rising sea levels along the U.S. coastline, which could increase by as much as 12 inches between 2020 and 2050 due to the ongoing climate crisis. Recently, researchers at Climate Central, a non-profit organization, have begun leveraging artificial intelligence to project the future impacts of climate-related flooding on American communities over the next 75 years, assuming current warming trends persist.
Past studies indicate that coastal flooding could more than triple by 2050, with 100-year floods becoming annual occurrences in regions such as New England. Ben Strauss, the CEO and chief scientist at Climate Central, described this threat as staggering and underscored the importance of innovative approaches like AI imagery to effectively convey the urgent situation.
“We aim to transform how flood risk is communicated in this country,” Strauss shared. “When people see familiar local landmarks, the real stakes become more apparent to them.”
To gather crucial data, Climate Central deployed camera-equipped trucks along the eastern and Gulf coasts, capturing images and videos of flood-prone areas. By combining these visuals with elevation data, researchers have developed a real-time flood map designed to communicate both current and future flooding risks more clearly.
“We employ AI in a controlled manner to illustrate scientific concepts,” Strauss explained. “When analyzing a photograph, we assess the position and elevation of every pixel, ensuring the AI simulates water levels only up to the projected flood heights.”
The project has recently provided visuals to The Guardian that show popular vacation destinations along the East Coast, like Cape Cod and the Jersey Shore, highlighting how these areas will be dramatically altered by rising sea levels and increased flooding.
The images depict water levels that correspond to 100-year floods—events that have a 1% chance of occurring in any given year. Recent events, however, suggest these floods are becoming more frequent, as evidenced by Maine experiencing three such storms within just three months earlier this year.
Melting ice caps are the primary drivers of rising sea levels, which have already increased by 4 inches over the past three decades, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Strauss pointed to a direct correlation between sea level rise and the severity of coastal floods.
“Sea-level rise effectively elevates the baseline for coastal flooding,” he noted. “For instance, a 1-foot increase would turn a 3-foot flood into a 4-foot flood and raise the frequency of 3-foot floods, making them much more common.”
Utilizing projections from the Interagency Sea Level Task Force, researchers anticipate a rise of 10 to 12 inches by 2050 and approximately 3 feet by 2100 in the northeastern United States. “Part of the future of sea level rise is about ice sheets and glaciers responding to the warming we’ve already induced, leading to significant changes by 2050,” Strauss commented. “By 2100, the outcomes will differ greatly depending on whether we stabilize global temperatures.”
One area poised to face severe impacts is Cape Cod in Massachusetts. “In Cape Cod, all our towns recognize flooding as our greatest risk—everything is at stake,” said Shannon Hulst, a floodplain specialist in Barnstable County. With about 5.5 million visitors contributing an estimated $730 million to the local economy each year, rising waters pose a direct threat to Cape Cod’s famous beaches.
“If our beaches can no longer draw visitors, our economy will undergo a tremendous transformation,” Hulst warned. Low-lying regions like Cape Cod are vulnerable to the detrimental effects of tides, waves, and storm surges. In response, some communities are moving inland, restoring natural coastal ecosystems, elevating infrastructure, and constructing sea walls.
However, elevating structures alone may not be enough. “Your home might survive, but if you can’t access food, water, or medical assistance, how resilient are you?” asked Nick Angarone, New Jersey’s chief resilience officer.
Experts predict that residents in the most flood-prone areas may eventually have no choice but to accept government buyouts for their homes. Strauss expressed optimism that powerful imagery from Climate Central would inspire communities to engage in thoughtful resilience planning and emergency preparedness.
“Even in the face of an impending hurricane, an image showing potential flood depths could encourage people to evacuate more effectively than an emergency alert in all caps,” he stated. “When they see that their home could be partially submerged, it changes the narrative completely.”