On October 17, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visited military units, where he underscored the imperative for the People’s Army to recognize South Korea as a foreign and hostile nation. He issued a stark warning that North Korea would not hesitate to employ force if its sovereignty were threatened by the South.

During his inspection of the People’s Army’s Second Army Command, Kim reiterated that it is crucial for military personnel to remember that South Korea is not just a foreign entity but an adversary. He stressed that any infringement on North Korean sovereignty by South Korea would be met with unconditional military action.

Kim pointed out that recent measures, including the cutting off of roads and railways to South Korea, represent more than just physical barriers. He described them as a decisive action to sever ties with Seoul and eradicate any notions of kinship or unification, asserting that only by showcasing military strength can North Korea achieve reliable, secure, and lasting peace.

According to the Korean Central News Agency, North Korea has amended its constitution to formally categorize South Korea as a hostile state and has destroyed roads connecting the two nations. The agency stated that further steps will be taken to permanently fortify the closed southern border.

As tensions escalate between North and South Korea, there has been growing concern about the possibility of renewed conflict. Professor Kim Dong-yup from the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul expressed skepticism about North Korea’s capability to wage a full-scale war, emphasizing that the regime is well aware of the severe repercussions that would follow such actions.

Similarly, Professor Nam Sung-wook, who teaches North Korean studies at Korea University, suggested that recent allegations from North Korea regarding South Korean drone incursions may simply be part of a propaganda battle, as both Koreas understand the high costs associated with full-blown war. He added that the likelihood of actual nuclear engagement remains low.

Political and diplomacy professor Kang Dong-won from Dong-A University also believes that the situation is unlikely to escalate to war, noting that North Korea appears to be utilizing military confrontations to strengthen internal cohesion.

European media reported that North Korea boasts one of the largest military forces in the world, with nearly 1.3 million active personnel, accounting for about 5% of its total population, alongside an estimated 600,000 reservists.

Kim Jong-un has prioritized defense spending, stating earlier this year that 15.9% of the total government budget would be allocated to military expenditures. Estimates suggest that North Korea’s military spending in 2023 is approximately 36.3% of its GDP, placing it second worldwide.

Since taking office in 2011, Kim has accelerated the nation’s nuclear program, conducting four nuclear tests in 2013, 2016, and 2017, and ordering at least 160 missile launches—more than both his father, Kim Jong-il, and grandfather, Kim Il-sung.